| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $18B | $18 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $5B | $4 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $103/share?
| Scenario | AI Agents EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $18B | $88 | 75.0% | $66 |
| base | $5B | $22 | 20.0% | $4 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-2 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $70/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to AI Agents' contribution to ServiceNow equity. ITSM and Workflow contribute separately.
Target contribution: $103/sh. Residual: $32.7/sh.