| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $57B | $57 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $34B | $34 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $20B | $20 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $443/share?
| Scenario | ITSM EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $57B | $278 | 75.0% | $208 |
| base | $34B | $164 | 20.0% | $33 |
| bear | $20B | $97 | 5.0% | $5 |
| Total | 100% | $246/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to ITSM's contribution to ServiceNow equity. Workflow and AI Agents contribute separately.
Target contribution: $443/sh. Residual: $197.0/sh.