| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $41B | $41 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $20B | $20 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $9B | $9 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $341/share?
| Scenario | Workflow EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $41B | $197 | 75.0% | $147 |
| base | $20B | $98 | 20.0% | $20 |
| bear | $9B | $43 | 5.0% | $2 |
| Total | 100% | $169/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Workflow's contribution to ServiceNow equity. ITSM and AI Agents contribute separately.
Target contribution: $341/sh. Residual: $171.8/sh.