Networking + Auto + Software — Scenario Model

Current Price

$175

Networking + Auto + Software Component

$7/sh

Market Implies

65% chance of upside scenarios

18% severeBear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$349B	$14	28%	software platform scale
strong bull	$221B	$9	19%	—
base	$146B	$6	18%	—
bear	$54B	$2	18%	—
severe bear	$29B	$1	18%	—

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

spectrum x scale

Spectrum-X becomes AI Ethernet standard alongside NVLink

Unlocks: Standalone networking revenue exceeds $20B

Q4 networking $11B (+263% YoY); 90% customer attach rate

2029

drive thor ramp

DRIVE Thor production ramp at BYD, Hyundai, Chinese OEMs

Unlocks: Automotive revenue accelerates toward $14B pipeline conversion

$14B design pipeline over 6 years; BYD/Hyundai confirmed

2031

software platform scale

AI Enterprise + NIM reach $16B+ ARR

Unlocks: High-margin recurring software revenue shifts margin mix

AI Enterprise $4,500/GPU/yr on millions of deployed GPUs

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $7/share?

Scenario	Non-GPU Enterprise Value	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$349B	$14	27.7%	$4
strong bull	$221B	$9	19.4%	$2
base	$146B	$6	17.6%	$1
bear	$54B	$2	17.6%	$0
severe bear	$29B	$1	17.6%	$0
Total			100%	$7/sh

Note: Non-GPU contributes $7.4/share (4.4% of equity). These businesses are strategically important for platform diversification but small relative to DC GPU.

Target contribution: $7/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.