| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Platform Revenue B | Op Margin % | Fcf B | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $565B | $23 | 69% | platform dominance | |||
| strong bull | $175B | $7 | 19% | — | |||
| moderate | $46B | $2 | 4% | — | |||
| limited | $12B | $0 | 4% | — | |||
| bear | $2B | $0 | 4% | moat erosion |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $18/share?
| Scenario | Platform Premium Value | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $565B | $23 | 69.3% | $16 |
| strong bull | $175B | $7 | 19.1% | $1 |
| moderate | $46B | $2 | 3.9% | $0 |
| limited | $12B | $0 | 3.9% | $0 |
| bear | $2B | $0 | 3.9% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $18/sh |
Note: Platform premium captures the ADDITIONAL value from NVIDIA's ecosystem moat beyond what DC GPU and Non-GPU hardware generate. Manifests as pricing power, CUDA lock-in, and new platform optionality.
Target contribution: $18/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.