| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $143B | $143 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $92B | $92 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $52B | $52 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $58/share?
| Scenario | Cloud Apps EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $143B | $51 | 75.0% | $38 |
| base | $92B | $33 | 20.0% | $7 |
| bear | $52B | $18 | 5.0% | $1 |
| Total | 100% | $46/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Cloud Apps' contribution to Oracle equity. OCI and License/Support contribute separately.
Target contribution: $58/sh. Residual: $11.8/sh.