| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $103B | $103 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $46B | $46 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($2B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $75/share?
| Scenario | OCI EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $103B | $37 | 75.0% | $28 |
| base | $46B | $16 | 20.0% | $3 |
| bear | ($2B) | $-1 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $31/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to OCI's contribution to Oracle equity. Cloud Apps and License/Support contribute separately.
Target contribution: $75/sh. Residual: $44.2/sh.