| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $121B | $121 | 19% | — | |||
| base | $92B | $92 | 27% | — | |||
| bear | $54B | $54 | 55% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $28/share?
| Scenario | License/Support EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $121B | $43 | 18.8% | $8 |
| base | $92B | $33 | 26.5% | $9 |
| bear | $54B | $19 | 54.7% | $11 |
| Total | 100% | $28/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to License/Support's contribution to Oracle equity. OCI and Cloud Apps contribute separately.
Target contribution: $28/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.