| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $21B | $9 | 8% | middle east scale | ||||
| moderate bull | $11B | $5 | 8% | partnership traction | ||||
| base | $6B | $3 | 8% | eu ai act adapted | ||||
| bear | $4B | $2 | 24% | switzerland contagion | ||||
| decline | $3B | $1 | 52% | govt only stabilize |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $2/share?
| Scenario | International EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $21B | $9 | 7.9% | $1 |
| moderate bull | $11B | $5 | 7.9% | $0 |
| base | $6B | $3 | 7.9% | $0 |
| bear | $4B | $2 | 24.0% | $0 |
| decline | $3B | $1 | 52.2% | $1 |
| Total | 100% | $2/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the international segment's contribution to Palantir equity. International is the smallest segment but carries the most optionality if bootcamp model exports successfully.
Target contribution: $2/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.