← PLTR/US Commercial — Scenario Model
Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

US Commercial — Scenario Model

Current Price
$154
US Commercial Component
$27/sh
Market Implies
58% chance of upside scenarios
21% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

ScenarioEV$/shProbRevenueNdr %Ebit Margin %FcfKey Gate
mega bull$156B$6819%enterprise standard
bull$93B$4019%deceleration
base$42B$1819%growth moderate
bear$19B$821%ndr compression
collapse$10B$421%govt adjacent floor

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026
Y1
guidance beat
FY2026 US commercial exceeds $3.2B guidance by 10%+
Unlocks: Validates accelerating growth at scale
FY2026 guided >$3,144M; management has beaten every guide
2027
Y2
partner scale
Accenture/Bain deliver 500+ bootcamps/year
Unlocks: Solves FDE scalability — growth no longer headcount-constrained
Accenture 2,000+ Palantir consultants; Bain 1,500+ AI experts
2029
Y4
enterprise standard
AIP becomes default enterprise AI platform for Fortune 500
Unlocks: Ontology becomes industry standard; massive NRR expansion
Only 5.5% of enterprises are AI high performers — massive headroom
2027
Y2
bootcamp proven
Bootcamp conversion sustains 70%+ at 300+/quarter
Unlocks: GTM model validated at scale
1,300+ bootcamps completed by Q4 2024; pace accelerating
2030
Y5
deceleration
Growth decelerates to 20% as base scales to $10B+
Unlocks: Still growing fast but law of large numbers takes effect
No SaaS company has sustained 100%+ growth above $10B
2028
Y3
growth moderate
Growth drops below 50% as bootcamp easy wins exhausted
Unlocks: Need new GTM channels beyond bootcamp to sustain growth
Analyst consensus ~35% growth for 2026; FDE capacity constraints
2027
Y2
hyperscaler pressure
Azure/AWS bundle operational AI at no extra cost
Unlocks: 80% of enterprise use cases 'good enough' with hyperscaler tools
Microsoft Copilot 90%+ Fortune 500; AWS Bedrock multi-billion ARR
2029
Y4
ndr compression
NDR drops below 110% — expansion engine stalls
Unlocks: Existing customers stop expanding; only new logos drive growth
Snowflake NDR compressed from 168% (2021) to 127% (2024) as growth slowed
2027
Y2
build vs buy shift
AI tools improve enough that enterprises build their own ontology layers
Unlocks: Internal build becomes viable for 60%+ of Palantir use cases
10-K identifies internal build as primary competitive threat
2029
Y4
churn exceeds expansion
NDR drops below 100% — existing customers are shrinking
Unlocks: Net revenue churn means the base is eroding
If AI becomes a commodity, Palantir's premium ontology loses value
2032
Y7
govt adjacent floor
Commercial revenue stabilizes from government-adjacent customers (defense industrial base)
Unlocks: Warp Speed manufacturing customers + regulated industries provide floor
Anduril, L3Harris, Panasonic, Shield AI on Warp Speed platform

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $27/share?

ScenarioUS Commercial EVPer ShareImplied Prob.Weighted Contrib.
mega bull$156B$6819.5%$13
bull$93B$4019.5%$8
base$42B$1819.5%$4
bear$19B$820.5%$2
collapse$10B$421.1%$1
Total100%$27/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to US commercial's contribution to Palantir equity. US commercial is the primary growth engine and the validation signal for the platform premium thesis.

Target contribution: $27/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.