← PLTR/US Government — Scenario Model
Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

US Government — Scenario Model

Current Price
$154
US Government Component
$12/sh
Market Implies
37% chance of upside scenarios
38% budgetCuts probability

Scenario Overview

ScenarioEV$/shProbRevenueGross Margin %Ebit Margin %FcfKey Gate
mega bull$92B$4012%civilian mandate
bull$43B$1912%growth normalize
base$26B$1112%growth moderate
bear$15B$625%anduril competition
budget cuts$10B$438%classified floor

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026
Y1
golden dome phase1
Golden Dome Phase 1 software contract awarded, multi-billion value
Unlocks: Massive new defense AI revenue stream
Palantir + Anduril selected for software glue layer; $185B total Phase 1
2027
Y2
maven full scale
Maven deployed across all combatant commands with 50,000+ users
Unlocks: Program of record creates permanent funding line
Maven POR status Mar 2026; 20,000+ users doubling since Jan 2025
2028
Y3
titan production
TITAN full-rate production begins, 100+ units
Unlocks: Hardware + software combined revenue
TITAN prototype on time Mar 2025; production decision FY2026
2029
Y4
civilian mandate
DOGE-driven mandate for unified federal data platform
Unlocks: Civilian agencies forced onto Palantir-type platform
IRS unified API, USDA Farm Security, VA NCVAS all active
2027
Y2
army esa ramp
Army ESA ramps to $1.5B+ annual spend
Unlocks: 75-contract consolidation creates reliable revenue stream
Army ESA $10B ceiling, 10-year term; 'a la carte' structure
2030
Y5
growth normalize
Growth normalizes as government penetration matures
Unlocks: Single-digit growth but high margins and durability
Defense AI spending structurally protected but growth rate decelerates
2029
Y4
growth moderate
Growth moderates as base revenue scales
Unlocks: Budget growth slows but classified revenue provides floor
Defense spending at 2.9% GDP — lowest since pre-WWII
2028
Y3
admin change risk
2028 administration change disrupts DOGE relationship
Unlocks: New procurement rules, contract re-competitions
DOGE is administration-specific; 2028 election creates regime change risk
2030
Y5
anduril competition
Anduril's $20B ESA + Lattice compete directly with Palantir
Unlocks: Defense market share pressure intensifies
Anduril $20B Army contract mirrors/doubles Palantir ESA model
2027
Y2
sequestration risk
New fiscal responsibility act imposes hard defense spending caps
Unlocks: Contract awards slow, new programs delayed
FRA 2023 hard caps expired after FY2025; new caps possible
2029
Y4
budget freeze
Defense budget effectively flat; AI spending squeezed by other priorities
Unlocks: Revenue stagnates as new contract flow dries up
Hegseth directed 8%/yr cuts; even if not fully realized, creates uncertainty
2032
Y7
classified floor
Classified revenue creates permanent revenue floor at ~$2.5B
Unlocks: Near-zero churn on classified deployments sustains base business
Classified switching costs: 18-24+ months re-accreditation, $3M+ per ATO

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $12/share?

ScenarioUS Government EVPer ShareImplied Prob.Weighted Contrib.
mega bull$92B$4012.4%$5
bull$43B$1912.4%$2
base$26B$1112.4%$1
bear$15B$625.1%$2
budget cuts$10B$537.7%$2
Total100%$12/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to the US government segment's contribution to Palantir equity. Government is Palantir's most durable segment — classified deployments create near-permanent lock-in.

Target contribution: $12/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.