| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $34B | $34 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $14B | $14 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $2B | $2 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $36/share?
| Scenario | Auto/IoT EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $34B | $31 | 75.0% | $23 |
| base | $14B | $13 | 20.0% | $3 |
| bear | $2B | $2 | 5.0% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $26/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Auto/IoT's contribution to Qualcomm equity. Handsets and Compute contribute separately.
Target contribution: $36/sh. Residual: $10.2/sh.