| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $17B | $17 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $3B | $3 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($1B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $20/share?
| Scenario | Compute EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $17B | $15 | 75.0% | $11 |
| base | $3B | $3 | 20.0% | $1 |
| bear | ($1B) | $-1 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $12/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Compute's contribution to Qualcomm equity. Handsets and Auto/IoT contribute separately.
Target contribution: $20/sh. Residual: $8.0/sh.