Flash/NAND Products — Scenario Model

Current Price

$729

Flash/NAND Products Component

$400/sh

Market Implies

95% chance of upside scenarios

2% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$112B	$112	80%	bics9 launch
bull	$55B	$55	13%	—
base	$14B	$14	2%	nand pricing normalizes
bear	$6B	$6	2%	samsung capacity flood
collapse	$2B	$2	2%	nand oversupply

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

256tb ssd ramp

256TB NVMe SSD enters volume production at hyperscalers

Unlocks: Validates enterprise SSD as structural growth driver for AI workloads

256TB SSD in qualification with 2 major hyperscalers [enterprise_ssd.json]

2029

bics9 launch

BiCS9 technology provides cost reduction for margin defense

Unlocks: Cost per bit improvement partially offsets NAND pricing normalization

BiCS8 at 15% of production, ramping [bics8.json]

2027

nand pricing normalizes

NAND pricing supercycle ends, margins mean-revert to 30-35% GM

Unlocks: Revenue growth stalls as pricing offset volume gains

51% GM is peak-cycle [nand_cyclicality.json]

2027

samsung capacity flood

Samsung breaks supply discipline, floods NAND capacity

Unlocks: Industry margins compress severely, pricing power destroyed

Samsung expansion signals [nand_cyclicality.json]

2027

nand oversupply

Industry-wide NAND oversupply as Samsung/SK Hynix expand simultaneously

Unlocks: Pricing collapses, margins compress below mid-cycle

NAND cyclicality precedent [nand_cyclicality.json]

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $400/share?

Scenario	Flash EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$112B	$462	79.6%	$368
bull	$55B	$224	13.5%	$30
base	$14B	$56	2.3%	$1
bear	$6B	$23	2.3%	$1
collapse	$2B	$8	2.3%	$0
Total			100%	$400/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Flash/NAND contribution to SNDK equity. HDD and Platform contribute separately. CRITICAL: 51% gross margins are peak-cycle.

Target contribution: $400/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.