Hard Disk Drives — Scenario Model

Current Price

$729

Hard Disk Drives Component

$250/sh

Market Implies

94% chance of upside scenarios

3% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$72B	$72	79%	60tb drives
bull	$29B	$29	12%	—
base	$7B	$7	3%	—
bear	$4B	$4	3%	ssd crossover starts
collapse	$2B	$2	3%	ssd rapid crossover

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

hamr volume

HAMR technology reaches volume production, enabling 30TB+ drives

Unlocks: Higher capacity = higher ASPs and cost advantage over SSD

HAMR roadmap [hdd/_overview.json]

2029

ai data explosion

AI training data storage demand creates step-change in nearline HDD orders

Unlocks: Hyperscalers increase cold/warm storage procurement 2x

AI training data explosion [nearline_demand.json]

2033

60tb drives

60TB+ drives with HAMR/MAMR extend HDD cost advantage

Unlocks: Maintains 3-5x cost advantage vs SSD for capacity workloads

Technology roadmaps [hdd/_overview.json]

2028

ssd crossover starts

SSD cost per TB crosses below HDD for warm storage tiers

Unlocks: Accelerates HDD volume decline in hyperscaler procurement

Cost crossover estimates [hdd/_overview.json]

2027

ssd rapid crossover

NAND cost declines accelerate SSD crossover across all storage tiers

Unlocks: HDD only relevant for archival/compliance — niche market

NAND cost trajectory [nand_cyclicality.json]

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $250/share?

Scenario	HDD EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$72B	$297	78.6%	$234
bull	$29B	$120	12.4%	$15
base	$7B	$29	2.5%	$1
bear	$4B	$15	3.1%	$0
collapse	$2B	$6	3.4%	$0
Total			100%	$250/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to HDD contribution to SNDK equity. Flash and Platform contribute separately.

Target contribution: $250/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.