| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $18B | $18 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $6B | $6 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($1B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $108/share?
| Scenario | Data Platform EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $18B | $54 | 75.0% | $41 |
| base | $6B | $17 | 20.0% | $3 |
| bear | ($1B) | $-2 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $44/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Data Platform's contribution to Snowflake equity. AI/ML and Marketplace contribute separately.
Target contribution: $108/sh. Residual: $64.2/sh.