| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Total Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| strong bull | $89B | $25 | 43% | volume recovery | ||||
| bull | $21B | $6 | 32% | model q launch | ||||
| base | ($18B) | $0 | 8% | — | ||||
| bear | ($24B) | $0 | 8% | — | ||||
| severe bear | ($29B) | $0 | 8% | — |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $11/share?
| Scenario | Auto EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| strong bull | $89B | $25 | 43.3% | $11 |
| bull | $21B | $6 | 31.6% | $2 |
| base | ($18B) | $-5 | 8.4% | $-0 |
| bear | ($24B) | $-7 | 8.4% | $-1 |
| severe bear | ($29B) | $-8 | 8.4% | $-1 |
| Total | 100% | $11/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the auto business contribution. At $11/sh (3% of equity), auto is a minor contributor — the thesis is about robotaxi and energy.
Target contribution: $11/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.