| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Gross Margin % | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $115B | $33 | 75% | software platform | ||||
| bull | $25B | $7 | 10% | houston factory | ||||
| base | $5B | $1 | 5% | houston factory | ||||
| bear | ($1B) | $0 | 5% | — | ||||
| collapse | ($2B) | $0 | 5% | ira weakened |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $25/share?
| Scenario | Energy Storage EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $115B | $33 | 74.7% | $24 |
| bull | $25B | $7 | 10.1% | $1 |
| base | $5B | $1 | 5.1% | $0 |
| bear | ($1B) | $-0 | 5.1% | $-0 |
| collapse | ($2B) | $-1 | 5.1% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $25/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to energy storage's incremental contribution to Tesla equity. The base business (auto, robotaxi, FSD, net cash) contributes separately.
Target contribution: $25/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.