FSD Software — Scenario Model

Current Price

$370

FSD Software Component

$9/sh

Market Implies

90% chance of upside scenarios

5% deepBear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$48B	$13	60%	oem expansion
base	$8B	$2	30%	subscription only
bear	$3B	$1	5%	price cut
deep bear	$1B	$0	5%	losavio settlement

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

subscription only

Sub-only model forces conversion from outright purchase

Unlocks: Accelerates subscriber growth

Tesla ended purchases Feb 14, 2026

2028

take rate inflection

FSD take rate crosses 20% of fleet

Unlocks: Network effects: more users → more data → better product → more users

Q4 2025: 12.4% take rate, growing

2029

first oem deal

First OEM licensing deal signed

Unlocks: Validates licensing revenue stream

Musk admitted 'they don't want it' Nov 2025 — bull requires this to change

2032

oem expansion

Multiple OEM deals generating $1B+

Unlocks: FSD becomes industry standard ADAS platform

Mobileye: $1.9B from 50+ OEMs validates the market

2028

price cut

Price cut to $89/mo to maintain growth

Unlocks: Lower ARPU

$199→$99 precedent (2024), competitive pressure

2027

losavio settlement

LoSavio class-action settlement + marketing restrictions

Unlocks: Reduced pricing, restricted claims

Certified Aug 2025, material risk

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $9/share?

Scenario	FSD Software EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$48B	$14	60.0%	$8
base	$8B	$2	30.0%	$1
bear	$3B	$1	5.0%	$0
deep bear	$1B	$0	5.0%	$0
Total			100%	$9/sh

Note: FSD Software = subscription + licensing revenue only. Robotaxi fleet economics are in the robotaxi model.

Target contribution: $9/sh. Residual: $0.2/sh.