| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Total Revenue | Gross Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $121B | $34 | 64% | consumer market | |||
| bull | ($9B) | $0 | 3% | industrial adoption | |||
| base | ($7B) | $0 | 3% | commercial launch | |||
| limited | ($4B) | $0 | 3% | — | |||
| failure | ($2B) | $0 | 26% | wind down |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $22/share?
| Scenario | Optimus EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $121B | $34 | 64.5% | $22 |
| bull | ($9B) | $-2 | 3.2% | $-0 |
| base | ($7B) | $-2 | 3.2% | $-0 |
| limited | ($4B) | $-1 | 3.2% | $-0 |
| failure | ($2B) | $-0 | 25.9% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $22/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Optimus's incremental contribution to Tesla equity. Optimus is pre-revenue — the value is entirely optionality.
Target contribution: $22/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.