| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Cost Per Mile | Ebit Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tam mega bull | $1.8T | $518 | 44% | tam expansion | ||||
| mega bull | $757B | $214 | 26% | global expansion | ||||
| strong bull | $483B | $137 | 8% | — | ||||
| moderate | $9B | $2 | 8% | — | ||||
| limited | ($4B) | $0 | 8% | — | ||||
| failure | ($1B) | $0 | 8% | — |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $293/share?
| Scenario | Robotaxi EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| tam mega bull | $1.8T | $518 | 43.9% | $227 |
| mega bull | $757B | $214 | 25.8% | $55 |
| strong bull | $483B | $137 | 7.5% | $10 |
| moderate | $9B | $3 | 7.6% | $0 |
| limited | ($4B) | $0 | 7.6% | $0 |
| failure | ($1B) | $0 | 7.6% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $293/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to robotaxi's incremental contribution to Tesla equity.
Target contribution: $293/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.