The robotaxi sub-area is modeled with six probability-weighted scenarios ranging from a $1.8T global platform (TAM mega bull) to complete program failure. The reverse-solve from the market price of $293/share implies the market assigns a 44% probability to the most extreme bull case.
| TAM Mega Bull (44%) | Mega Bull (26%) | Strong Bull (8%) | Moderate (8%) | Failure (8%) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleet (Y15) | 35M | 25M | -- | -- | -- |
| Revenue (Y15) | $423B | $246B | -- | -- | -- |
| EBIT Margin | 71% | 65% | 41% | 34% | -- |
| WACC | 8.5% | 9% | 10% | 11% | -- |
| Fleet (Y13) | -- | -- | 11M | -- | -- |
| Revenue (Y13) | -- | -- | $284B | -- | -- |
| Fleet (Y12) | -- | -- | -- | 550K | -- |
| Revenue (Y12) | -- | -- | -- | $12B | -- |
| Fleet | -- | -- | -- | -- | 0 |
| Revenue | -- | -- | -- | -- | $0 |
| Outcome | -- | -- | -- | -- | Camera-only never achieves L4 |
| DCF Value | $1.83T | $757B | $483B | $9B | $0 |
| Per Share | $518 | $214 | $137 | $2 | $0 |
The 44% probability on TAM mega bull is exceptionally high — it requires Tesla to achieve global L4, build 35M vehicles, capture 25% of an expanded global TAM, and maintain 71% EBIT margins. Every one of these assumptions is contestable. Yet the reverse-solve shows this is what the market is pricing.
What the failure scenarios imply
The combined failure + limited probability is only 16%. The market sees very little chance that robotaxi is worth nothing. This means even bearish investors are pricing in significant optionality — the downside protection comes from Tesla's existing businesses, not from robotaxi hedging.
What discount rate is appropriate for a business that may not exist for 5-10 years?
The bull scenario requires Tesla to achieve full L4 autonomy with camera-only, scale a fleet of 3-7.5 million autonomous vehicles, and capture a dominant share of the global transportation TAM. ARK Invest projects $486B-$1T in annual robotaxi revenue by 2029, with the robotaxi business contributing 90% of Tesla's enterprise value.
The ARK Caveat
ARK Invest is a known Tesla bull with significant TSLA holdings. Their $0.25/mile projection and 80% take rate assumptions are at the extreme optimistic end of analyst estimates. Morgan Stanley's timeline extends to 2040 for meaningful revenue, more than a decade later than ARK's 2029 projection.
The base scenario envisions Tesla achieving L3+ autonomy comparable to Waymo's current operational model in geofenced areas of 5-10 US cities by the early 2030s. This is 'partial success' -- FSD works well enough in controlled environments with favorable weather and mapped roads, but never achieves the unconstrained L4 needed for nationwide deployment.
Profitable but Not Transformative
The base case produces a real business worth roughly $13B -- meaningful but not the transformative outcome that justifies Tesla's current robotaxi premium. At this scale, Tesla is one of several regional robotaxi operators rather than the dominant global platform.
Camera-Only Never Achieves L4 Safety at Scale
The bear scenario assumes Tesla's camera-only approach never achieves the safety and reliability required for unsupervised commercial deployment. This is the highest-probability single scenario at 46%, driven by three reinforcing failure modes.
The FSD Revenue Risk
In this scenario, the billions Tesla has collected for FSD licenses ($199-$12,000+ per vehicle) face legal challenges if the system never delivers on its 'Full Self-Driving' promise. The certified class action covering California buyers from 2016-2024 seeking full refunds is an early indicator of this risk.