| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $36B | $36 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $16B | $16 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($1B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $18/share?
| Scenario | Delivery EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $36B | $18 | 75.0% | $13 |
| base | $16B | $8 | 20.0% | $2 |
| bear | ($1B) | $-0 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $15/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Delivery's contribution to Uber equity. Mobility and Freight/Platform contribute separately.
Target contribution: $18/sh. Residual: $3.7/sh.