| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $8B | $8 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $2B | $2 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($1B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $8/share?
| Scenario | Freight/Platform EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $8B | $4 | 75.0% | $3 |
| base | $2B | $1 | 20.0% | $0 |
| bear | ($1B) | $-0 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $3/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Freight/Platform's contribution to Uber equity. Mobility and Delivery contribute separately.
Target contribution: $8/sh. Residual: $5.1/sh.