| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $126B | $126 | 52% | — | |||
| base | $68B | $68 | 27% | — | |||
| bear | $23B | $23 | 21% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $43/share?
| Scenario | Mobility EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $126B | $61 | 52.0% | $32 |
| base | $68B | $33 | 27.4% | $9 |
| bear | $23B | $11 | 20.6% | $2 |
| Total | 100% | $43/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Mobility's contribution to Uber equity. Delivery and Freight/Platform contribute separately.
Target contribution: $43/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.