← AMD/Data Center (GPUs + EPYC CPUs) — Scenario Model

Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

Data Center (GPUs + EPYC CPUs) — Scenario Model

Current Price

$202

Data Center (GPUs + EPYC CPUs) Component

$99/sh

Market Implies

83% chance of upside scenarios

8% severeBear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$233B	$143	55%	margin expansion
base	$100B	$61	28%	mi450 launch
bear	$35B	$21	8%	asic squeeze
severe bear	$21B	$13	8%	cpu only reversion

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

mi355x ramp

MI355X full production ramp (CDNA 4)

Unlocks: Fills demand gap until MI450. 20-30% inference advantage vs B200

MI355X ISSCC 2026 benchmarks

2027

mi450 launch

MI450/Helios production begins Q3 2026

Unlocks: Unlocks OpenAI/Meta 1 GW deployments

AMD CES 2026: MI450 specs, Helios rack, Celestica partnership

2028

openai 1gw

OpenAI deploys 1 GW MI450 — first binding tranche

Unlocks: Validates AMD as credible #2. Revenue recognition begins

OpenAI 6 GW deal: first 1 GW binding [AMD 8-K Oct 2025]

2030

epyc 50pct share

EPYC reaches 50% server revenue share

Unlocks: CPU becomes majority vendor. Intel at historic lows

AMD Analyst Day: >50% share target [Nov 2025]

2032

margin expansion

Non-GAAP margins reach 35% as Xilinx amort. fades

Unlocks: Mix shift to GPU improves gross margin; amortization declining

Xilinx amort. ~$2.3B/yr, declining ~5%/yr

2028

vera rubin impact

NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 ships H2 2026, closes inference gap

Unlocks: AMD 25-40% cost advantage narrows/eliminated

NVIDIA GTC 2026: 10x inference cost reduction vs Blackwell

2032

asic squeeze

Custom ASICs capture 40%+ of inference market

Unlocks: AMD squeezed between NVIDIA CUDA moat and ASIC TCO

TrendForce: ASICs 27.8% of AI servers in 2026, rising to 40%

2028

gpu stall

MI450 fails to win beyond initial binding commitments

Unlocks: OpenAI/Meta exercise only 1 GW each, shift to ASICs

OpenAI 10 GW Broadcom ASIC deal as fallback [TrendForce]

2031

cpu only reversion

AMD refocuses on EPYC, reduces GPU R&D

Unlocks: GPU becomes niche; EPYC remains competitive against Intel

Intel server at 13-year lows — EPYC has secular tailwind regardless

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $99/share?

Scenario	Data Center EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$233B	$143	55.3%	$79
base	$100B	$61	28.0%	$17
bear	$35B	$21	8.3%	$2
severe bear	$21B	$13	8.3%	$1
Total			100%	$99/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to AMD's Data Center segment (Instinct GPUs + EPYC CPUs). The segment includes both anchored EPYC revenue and growth-premium GPU revenue.

Target contribution: $99/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.