AMDAdvanced Micro Devices
$202
$329.2B market cap

What $202 buys you

SegmentValue% of PriceType
Net Cash$52%auditable
Data Center (GPUs + EPYC CPUs)$9949%anchored
Client + Gaming + Embedded$2814%anchored
GPU Share Capture Premium$7035%anchored

Anchored: $197/sh (98%) · Speculative: $0/sh (0%)

Each bet

Data Center (GPUs + EPYC CPUs)

$99/sh
49% of AMDanchored41 evidence

What is the exact breakdown of AMD Data Center revenue between EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs? AMD does not disclose this.

AMD's Data Center segment is the company's growth engine, combining two distinct businesses: EPYC server CPUs (the stable cash-flow anchor) and Instinct AI GPUs (the high-growth, high-variance bet). Q4 FY2025 marked a milestone — GPU revenue surpassed CPU revenue within the segment for the first...

GPU Share Capture Premium

$70/sh
35% of AMDanchored30 evidence

Will OpenAI's Titan custom ASIC (with Broadcom) reduce the long-term value of the MI450 deal, or do they serve different workloads?

This is the single most important component of AMD's stock price. The market prices an 80% probability that AMD captures meaningful GPU share from NVIDIA's ~75%. If you strip out the Data Center base case and Legacy segments, AMD would trade at roughly $130/share — the remaining $70 is pure GPU...

Client + Gaming + Embedded

$28/sh
14% of AMDanchored10 evidence

Will AI PCs drive a meaningful upgrade cycle for AMD Ryzen, or is NPU integration a feature without a killer app?

AMD's Legacy segments provide the cash-flow floor and valuation anchor. Client CPUs are the standout: desktop CPU revenue share surged from 28% to 42.6% in 2025, with Intel now outselling AMD only 2:1 versus 9:1 a few years ago. AI PCs with Ryzen AI 400 (50 TOPS NPU) are the growth catalyst. Gaming...

What would change the price

OpenAI successfully trains GPT-6 on AMD MI450 hardware

Second hyperscaler signs MI450 mega-deal (Google, Microsoft, or AWS)

OpenAI-AMD deal scales back or MI450 underperforms expectations

NVIDIA Vera Rubin launches with 3x MI450 performance

Custom ASICs (Google TPU, AWS Trainium) capture 30%+ of inference market