Client + Gaming + Embedded — Scenario Model

Current Price

$202

Client + Gaming + Embedded Component

$28/sh

Market Implies

78% chance of upside scenarios

22% bear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$65B	$40	50%	embedded recovery
base	$34B	$21	28%	—
bear	$18B	$11	22%	console decline

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

ai pc ramp

AI PC adoption crosses 50% of shipments

Unlocks: Ryzen AI 400 volumes from HP, Lenovo, Dell

IDC: AI PCs 50% of shipments 2026

2028

next gen xbox

Next-gen Xbox SoC production begins

Unlocks: Offsets PS5/Xbox decline with new console cycle

AMD Q4 2025: next-gen Xbox SoC for 2027

2030

embedded recovery

Embedded recovers to $5B+ from post-pandemic trough

Unlocks: Xilinx portfolio (70%+ share) returns to growth

Q4 $950M +11% QoQ suggests recovery underway

2027

arm pc threat

Qualcomm ARM PCs capture 15%+ of notebook market

Unlocks: AMD mobile CPU share erosion

Qualcomm Snapdragon X: superior battery life, cellular connectivity

2030

console decline

Semi-custom revenue below $1B

Unlocks: Console generation fully mature

AMD guided 'significant double-digit' decline FY2026

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $28/share?

Scenario	Legacy EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$65B	$40	49.6%	$20
base	$34B	$21	28.1%	$6
bear	$18B	$11	22.3%	$2
Total			100%	$28/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to AMD's mature segments (Client CPUs, Gaming/Console SoCs, Embedded/Xilinx FPGAs). These provide cash flow stability and a valuation floor.

Target contribution: $28/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.