The DUV and installed base business provides ASML's revenue floor. With 5,700+ systems deployed globally and 95%+ service attachment rates, this segment generates predictable, high-margin recurring revenue. DUV systems remain essential even for the most advanced chips. The only bear risk is Chinese SMEE eventually competing at mature nodes, but SMEE is currently 2+ generations behind.
The installed base service business is ASML's most predictable revenue stream: 5,700+ systems on 95%+ service contracts with no competitive alternative. Multi-year contracts with price escalators. Upgrade programs generate EUR 10-30M per system. This is the revenue floor that makes ASML resilient even in equipment down-cycles.
SMEE is the only potential long-term threat to ASML at mature nodes. Currently at 90nm (ASML is at 7nm DUV), SMEE aims for 28nm by 2027-2028 but the timeline is uncertain. Even if achieved, SMEE only threatens mature-node DUV -- ASML's EUV monopoly is completely unaffected. Throughput is less than half of ASML's comparable tools.