DUV & Installed Base — Scenario Model

Current Price

$1369

DUV & Installed Base Component

$300/sh

Market Implies

90% chance of upside scenarios

10% bear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$87B	$87	64%	euv upgrade program
base	$56B	$56	26%	—
bear	$29B	$29	10%	china service loss

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

upgrade acceleration

EUV system upgrade program launched at scale

Unlocks: EUR 20-30M per upgrade for existing NXE systems

ASML upgrade revenue growing, customer demand for productivity improvements

2031

euv upgrade program

Standard-to-High-NA conversion program begins

Unlocks: New revenue stream converting installed NXE systems

Analogous to DUV upgrade programs but higher value

2027

smee 28nm

SMEE achieves 28nm DUV commercial production

Unlocks: Chinese chipmakers begin replacing ASML DUV for mature nodes

SMEE 28nm target 2027-2028 [Chinese govt roadmap]

2030

china service loss

Some Chinese fabs switch to SMEE service

Unlocks: ASML loses some mature-node service contracts in China

SMEE service ecosystem matures alongside system sales

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $300/share?

Scenario	DUV/Service EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$87B	$356	64.1%	$228
base	$56B	$230	26.4%	$61
bear	$29B	$117	9.5%	$11
Total			100%	$300/sh

Note: DUV new system revenue + installed base service revenue. Service has higher margins and no competition.

Target contribution: $300/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.