Process Control & Inspection — Scenario Model

Current Price

$1528

Process Control & Inspection Component

$1000/sh

Market Implies

67% chance of upside scenarios

33% bear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$117B	$117	33%	pc share 9pct
base	$67B	$67	33%	—
bear	$34B	$34	33%	—

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

euv metrology ramp

EUV metrology content per wafer increases 15%+ at 3nm/2nm

Unlocks: Drives incremental inspection revenue per wafer start

Process control intensity +100-200bp per node [VLSI Research]

2028

gaa production

Gate-all-around (GAA) transistors enter mass production

Unlocks: 3D transistor structure requires metrology at multiple planes, increasing steps

TSMC N2 / Samsung 2GAP mass production 2027-2028 [roadmaps]

2030

adv pkg 2b

Advanced packaging revenue exceeds $2B annually

Unlocks: Validates packaging inspection as a structural growth vector

FY2025 at $925M, +85% YoY [KLA earnings]

2032

pc share 9pct

Process control share of WFE reaches 9%

Unlocks: Validates KLA's structural outperformance thesis

Currently 7.4%, target 9%+ [KLA Investor Day]

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $1000/share?

Scenario	Inspection EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$117B	$896	33.3%	$299
base	$67B	$512	33.3%	$171
bear	$34B	$264	33.3%	$88
Total			100%	$557/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Inspection's contribution to KLAC equity. Services, Specialty, and net cash contribute separately.

Target contribution: $1000/sh. Residual: $442.6/sh.