Is the loss-ratio improvement durable AI underwriting, or rate hikes + Pet mix + the absence of 2025 CAT?
$1.33BIn-Force PremiumQ1 2026, +32% YoY; 3.14M customers
| Bull (--) | Mega-bull (--) | Base (--) | Collapse (--) | Bear (--) |
|---|
| Per Share | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
Fair value vs sustained core gross loss ratio (base-case growth)
| Bull Prob. | Bear Prob. | Implied Value | Δ from Current |
|---|
| NaN% | NaN% | $NaN/sh | -$NaN |
| NaN% | NaN% | $NaN/sh | -$NaN |
| NaN% | NaN% | $NaN/sh | -$NaN |
| NaN% | NaN% | $NaN/sh | -$NaN |
| NaN% | NaN% | $NaN/sh | -$NaN |
| NaN% | NaN% | $NaN/sh | -$NaN |
| NaN% | NaN% | $NaN/sh | -$NaN |
| NaN% | NaN% | $NaN/sh | -$NaN |
Product Mix & Premium per Customer
2 evidence$424Premium / customer+7% YoY; rising on mix shift
|
| Homeowners | $540M | $243 | 49% |
| Pet | $490M (largest by Q2) | $822 | 69% |
| Car | $214M (+60%) | $2,067 | 74% |
| Europe | $67M | $187 | 85% |
Renters → Graduation / Cross-Sell Flywheel
4 evidence18%Bundled share of IFPmulti-line customers ~4x average premium
Homeowners & Catastrophe Risk
8 evidence55% → 20%Quota-share cessioneffective July 2025; more retained risk
Pet Insurance — The Breakout Line
9 evidence$44 → $14Pet cost-per-claim2021 → 2025, AI automation
European Expansion
8 evidence~$67MEurope IFP10 quarters triple-digit growth; >250k customers
Synthetic Agents — The Growth-Financing Engine
14 evidence+$200MGC facility (2026)finances up to 80% of CAC
Capital-efficient compounding, or leverage in disguise?