| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $0B | $0 | 22% | — |
| bull | $0B | $0 | 21% | — |
| base | $0B | $0 | 20% | — |
| bear | $0B | $0 | 19% | — |
| collapse | $0B | $0 | 19% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $0/share?
| Scenario | Core Insurance Book (Renters, Homeowners, Pet, Life) EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | ($0B) | $83 | 21.7% | $18 |
| bull | ($0B) | $52 | 20.6% | $11 |
| base | ($0B) | $22 | 19.6% | $4 |
| bear | ($0B) | $6 | 19.1% | $1 |
| collapse | ($0B) | $2 | 19.0% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $0/sh |
Target contribution: $0/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.