Etch Systems — Scenario Model

Current Price

$231

Etch Systems Component

$130/sh

Market Implies

82% chance of upside scenarios

9% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$120B	$120	52%	etch 55pct share
bull	$76B	$76	20%	hbm4 16 layer
base	$46B	$46	9%	—
bear	$25B	$25	9%	memory capex cut
collapse	$15B	$15	9%	china ban expands

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

hbm4 16 layer

HBM4 with 16-layer stacking enters volume production

Unlocks: Doubles TSV etch content per HBM stack vs HBM3

HBM4 16-layer roadmap confirmed by SK Hynix and Samsung [hbm_etch.json]

2028

gaa volume ramp

TSMC N2 and Intel 18A reach volume production with GAA

Unlocks: Adds 20-30% more etch steps per wafer at leading edge

GAA adoption confirmed by all three leading foundries [gaa_etch.json]

2030

etch 55pct share

Lam gains conductor etch share to 55%+ from rising process complexity

Unlocks: Share gains compound revenue growth above WFE growth rate

Lam ~50% conductor etch share, complexity favors market leader [_overview.json]

2028

memory capex cut

Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron simultaneously cut memory capex

Unlocks: NAND recovery reverses, etch tool orders drop 20%+

NAND spending is most volatile WFE segment [nand_etch.json]

2027

china ban expands

US export controls expand to restrict mature-node etch equipment to China

Unlocks: Removes 10%+ of revenue permanently. NAURA/AMEC capture domestic share.

China 35% of revenue, export controls expanded 3x since 2022 [china_exposure.json]

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $130/share?

Scenario	Etch EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$120B	$181	52.5%	$95
bull	$76B	$115	20.0%	$23
base	$46B	$69	9.2%	$6
bear	$25B	$38	9.2%	$4
collapse	$15B	$23	9.2%	$2
Total			100%	$130/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Etch Systems contribution to LRCX equity. Deposition and CSBG Services contribute separately.

Target contribution: $130/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.