← MBLY/Core ADAS (EyeQ Chips) — Scenario Model

Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

Core ADAS (EyeQ Chips) — Scenario Model

Current Price

Core ADAS (EyeQ Chips) Component

$5/sh

Market Implies

67% chance of upside scenarios

24% acquisition probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$6B	$7	50%	surround scale
base	$2B	$3	9%	—
bear	$0B	$0	9%	qualcomm share gain
distressed	($1B)	$0	9%	restructuring
acquisition	$5B	$5	24%	synergy realization

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026

gsr2 phase3

EU GSR2 Phase 3 mandates take effect July 2026

Unlocks: Creates demand floor for ADAS chips across all new EU vehicles

EU regulation: AEB, LDW, driver drowsiness mandatory

2028

eyeq6 adoption

EyeQ6L becomes majority of shipments

Unlocks: Higher-capability chip enables richer feature set, supports ASP stability

46M EyeQ6L committed, nominations 3.5x [CES 2026]

2030

surround scale

Surround ADAS (EyeQ6H) reaches 800K+ units/yr

Unlocks: Higher ASP ($200) lifts revenue per vehicle

19M EyeQ6H committed from VW + US OEM [MBLY Jan 2026]

2027

china erosion

China ADAS revenue drops to near-zero

Unlocks: Revenue headwind, margin mix effect

Horizon Robotics 45.8% share, 20% domestic procurement preference [Counterpoint/ThinkerCar]

2030

qualcomm share gain

Qualcomm wins 3+ top-10 OEM platforms

Unlocks: Volume decline accelerates, R&D burden increases as % of shrinking revenue

BMW dropped MBLY, Qualcomm $45B pipeline [BMW/QCOM]

2026

intel distressed sale

Intel dumps remaining shares at deep discount

Unlocks: 670M+ shares flood thin float, multiple collapses

Intel 2026 proxy: $7B equity raises needed, MBLY stake = ~$4.5B

2033

restructuring

Mobileye restructures — cuts R&D, focuses on profitable core

Unlocks: FCF improves but growth prospects diminish

Pattern: companies cut R&D when growth stalls

2027

acquisition announced

Strategic buyer acquires Intel's 80% stake

Unlocks: Overhang removed overnight, governance improves, R&D synergies

At 2.44x EV/Rev with 68% GM, attractive to strategic buyers [valuation]

2030

synergy realization

Acquirer R&D synergies reduce cost burden from 50%+ to 35%

Unlocks: EBIT margins expand significantly

Qualcomm auto+ADAS integration would reduce duplicated R&D

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $5/share?

Scenario	Core ADAS EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$6B	$7	50.0%	$3
base	$2B	$3	8.7%	$0
bear	$0B	$0	8.7%	$0
distressed	($1B)	$-1	8.7%	$-0
acquisition	$5B	$5	24.0%	$1
Total			100%	$5/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to core ADAS's contribution to MBLY equity. The segment generates 90% of current revenue and funds the entire R&D budget. Intel overhang is the dominant variable.

Target contribution: $5/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.