| Segment | Value | % of Price | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Cash | $2 | 28% | auditable |
| Core ADAS (EyeQ Chips) | $5 | 63% | speculative |
| SuperVision (L2+ System) | $1 | 9% | anchored |
| Chauffeur / Robotaxi / Mentee (Pure Optionality) | $0 | 0% | speculative |
Anchored: $1/sh (9%) · Speculative: $5/sh (63%)
What is the real switching cost for OEMs leaving Mobileye's integrated stack for Qualcomm/NVIDIA open platforms?
Mobileye's core ADAS business is the foundation: EyeQ chips powering L0-L2 safety features in over 230 million cumulative vehicles across 50+ OEMs. This segment generates nearly all of the company's revenue and all of its free cash flow. The business has the highest adjusted gross margin among auto...
When does SuperVision reach positive operating margin?
SuperVision is Mobileye's growth engine: an 11-camera, dual EyeQ6H system enabling hands-off highway driving at up to 130 km/h. At a dramatically higher ASP than base EyeQ chips, SuperVision transforms Mobileye from a commodity chip supplier into a full-system provider. The pipeline includes...
Can True Redundancy achieve L4 safety at lower cost than Waymo's sensor-heavy approach?
This is Mobileye's speculative portfolio — and the market prices it at exactly zero. Chauffeur (L3 eyes-off driving) has a committed VW pipeline of 17 models and 600K units. Mobileye Drive (L4 robotaxi) powers the VW ID.Buzz AD launching in Hamburg and LA. Mentee Robotics is a humanoid robot bet....
Intel announces complete divestiture or IPO of remaining ~80% MBLY stake
Core ADAS + SuperVision multiples re-rate toward comp levels. At 3.5x core ADAS (still below median), adds ~$1.80/share.
Intel dumps remaining ~80% MBLY stake in distressed block trade
670M+ shares flood a 150M-share float. Severe price pressure. Multiple compresses below 2.0x.
Qualcomm Ride Pilot wins design-out at 2+ of MBLY's top-5 OEM customers (e.g., Ford + Stellantis shift to Snapdragon Ride)
Core ADAS revenue trajectory turns negative. Market re-prices base business toward Aptiv-level ~1.2x EV/Revenue.
Porsche/Audi confirm on-schedule SuperVision/Chauffeur launch mid-2027 with strong initial order volumes
SuperVision multiple re-rates toward 4-5x. Chauffeur probability moves from 0% to 15-25%, adding $0.50-1.50/share.
Zeekr/Geely fully shifts from Mobileye SuperVision to NVIDIA Orin X or in-house
SuperVision loses anchor customer. Revenue drops ~30-40%. Growth narrative collapses.
Major non-VW Western OEM (Toyota, Hyundai, Stellantis) selects SuperVision for next-gen platform with 2M+ unit commitment
SuperVision pipeline doubles. Multiple re-rates toward 4-5x. Validates transition from chip vendor to system provider.
EU GSR2 Phase 3 (July 2026) drives accelerated EyeQ6 adoption; MBLY raises FY2027 guidance above $2.2B
Core ADAS growth narrative shifts from 'stagnation' to 'regulatory-driven growth.' Multiple re-rates from 2.44x toward 3.0x+.