← MBLY/Chauffeur / Robotaxi / Mentee — Scenario Model
Blue = input assumption|Black = computed

Chauffeur / Robotaxi / Mentee — Scenario Model

Current Price
$8
Chauffeur / Robotaxi / Mentee Component
$0/sh
Market Implies
61% chance of upside scenarios
19% menteeDisaster probability

Scenario Overview

ScenarioEV$/shProbTotal RevenueFcfKey Gate
bull$2B$224%multi city robotaxi
moderate($1B)$019%audi l3 delayed
limited($1B)$019%audi limited launch
failure($0B)$019%wind down
mentee disaster($0B)$019%mentee writeoff

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2026
Y1
hamburg launch
Hamburg robotaxi launches H2 2026 with safety drivers
Unlocks: Real-world data collection, validates Mobileye Drive technology
VW pre-series producing 500 ID.Buzz AD vehicles [electrive Mar 2026]
2027
Y2
audi l3 launch
Audi launches Chauffeur L3 (eyes-on first) mid-2027
Unlocks: First consumer L3 revenue, validates demand beyond Mercedes precedent
Chauffeur with Audi mid-2027, eyes-on first [MBLY earnings]
2029
Y4
driverless operation
Hamburg achieves fully driverless operation
Unlocks: Proves safety case, regulatory confidence, scales unit economics
MOIA target: driverless 2027 [CES 2026] — apply 1-2yr delay
2031
Y6
multi city robotaxi
Robotaxi expands to 6+ cities including LA
Unlocks: Validates geographic scalability
MOIA: 6 cities by end 2027, LA via Uber [CES 2026/Uber]
2028
Y3
audi l3 delayed
Audi Chauffeur launches 2028 (1yr delay)
Unlocks: Revenue begins but later than hoped
Pattern: 2-year delays from original timelines [MBLY earnings]
2029
Y4
audi limited launch
Audi Chauffeur launches very limited availability (Germany-only)
Unlocks: Proves technology but consumer demand is minimal
Mercedes Drive Pilot <1% take rate [industry precedent]
2029
Y4
robotaxi stalls
VW/MOIA scales back robotaxi ambitions
Unlocks: Safety incidents or unit economics failure
Cruise recall precedent — safety incident froze entire program
2031
Y6
wind down
Speculative programs enter maintenance mode
Unlocks: R&D redeployed to core ADAS and SuperVision
Pattern: enterprise pivots when L4 doesn't materialize
2026
Y1
mentee closes
Mentee acquisition closes, $612M cash leaves balance sheet
Unlocks: Net cash drops from $1.84B to $1.22B
MBLY 8-K: deal announced Jan 6, 2026, closing Q1 2026
2029
Y4
mentee writeoff
Mentee written off — PoC fails, no path to revenue
Unlocks: Capital destruction crystallized, governance damage
ISS/Glass Lewis flagged related-party transaction [proxy advisory]

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $0/share?

ScenarioSpeculative EVPer ShareImplied Prob.Weighted Contrib.
bull$2B$223.8%$1
moderate($1B)$-118.6%$-0
limited($1B)$-118.7%$-0
failure($0B)$-119.5%$-0
mentee disaster($0B)$-119.5%$-0
Total100%$0/sh

Note: Market prices ALL speculative programs at $0/share. The bull case shows what these COULD be worth if execution succeeds. The failure case shows why the market assigns zero. Any positive probability assignment is alpha vs the current price.

Target contribution: $0/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.