SuperVision (L2+ System) — Scenario Model

Current Price

SuperVision (L2+ System) Component

$1/sh

Market Implies

66% chance of upside scenarios

17% failure probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
bull	$2B	$3	28%	margin crossover
base	$0B	$0	21%	margin crossover
bear	($0B)	$0	17%	zeekr partial loss
niche	($0B)	$0	17%	zeekr full loss
failure	($0B)	$0	17%	wind down

Gate Milestones

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

porsche audi launch

Porsche/Audi SuperVision launches Q1 2027

Unlocks: Validates premium OEM adoption, validates technology on European roads

Porsche/Audi in C-sample tests [MBLY Evercore forum]

2028

mahindra launch

Mahindra + additional OEMs launch

Unlocks: Geographic diversification beyond China/Europe

Mahindra 6+ models from 2027 [MBLY announcement]

2030

margin crossover

SuperVision operating margin crosses above threshold

Unlocks: Growth begins creating value instead of destroying it

Threshold margin 4.3% [PIE model calculation]

2027

zeekr partial loss

Zeekr shifts premium models to NVIDIA

Unlocks: Volume drops in Y2 as anchor customer diversifies

Zeekr reportedly evaluating NVIDIA Orin X [industry reports]

2027

zeekr full loss

Zeekr fully shifts to NVIDIA across all models

Unlocks: Anchor customer loss collapses near-term volume

Zeekr reportedly evaluating NVIDIA [industry reports]

2027

oem defections

Multiple OEMs cancel or delay SuperVision programs

Unlocks: Revenue drops sharply, fixed costs become unsustainable

BMW precedent — switched to Qualcomm Neue Klasse [BMW investor day]

2030

wind down

SuperVision program enters maintenance mode

Unlocks: Minimal new investment, existing customers supported

Pattern: enterprise software wind-downs

Full Year-by-Year Models

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Market-Implied Probability Reconciliation

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $1/share?

Scenario	SuperVision EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
bull	$2B	$3	27.9%	$1
base	$0B	$0	21.1%	$0
bear	($0B)	$-0	17.0%	$-0
niche	($0B)	$-0	17.0%	$-0
failure	($0B)	$-0	17.0%	$-0
Total			100%	$1/sh

Note: SuperVision is Mobileye's growth engine: 25-30x higher ASP than base EyeQ. But margins are negative during ramp. The margin crossover timing determines whether growth creates or destroys value.

Target contribution: $1/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.