Data Center GPU — Scenario Model

Current Price

$175

Data Center GPU Component

$140/sh

Market Implies

68% chance of upside scenarios

16% severeBear probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$6.6T	$270	32%	enterprise ai scale
strong bull	$3.4T	$141	19%	vera rubin ship
base	$2.1T	$88	16%	—
bear	$1.2T	$49	16%	—
severe bear	$540B	$22	16%	trough

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

vera rubin ship

Vera Rubin NVL72 ships H2 2026; 10x inference cost reduction

Unlocks: Closes inference TCO gap with ASICs; unlocks enterprise inference demand

NVIDIA GTC 2026: 3.6 EFLOPS, 260TB/s bandwidth, 1/10 cost per million tokens

2029

feynman ship

Feynman architecture ships 2028; consumes 60% TSMC CoWoS

Unlocks: Next-gen product cycle maintains performance leadership

NVIDIA roadmap: annual cadence Blackwell → Vera Rubin → Feynman

2031

enterprise ai scale

Enterprise + sovereign AI exceed 50% of DC revenue

Unlocks: Revenue diversification reduces hyperscaler concentration risk

Sovereign AI already $30B (14%); agentic AI inflection per Jensen Huang

2028

capex downcycle

Hyperscaler capex cut 20-30% as AI ROI disappoints

Unlocks: Demand destruction; pricing pressure; inventory build

NVIDIA 10-K cyclicality risk; Cisco dot-com precedent

2031

trough

Revenue troughs as AI capex stabilizes at lower level

Unlocks: Growth resumes at inflationary rate only

Historical semiconductor cycle: 2-3 year downturns typical

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $140/share?

Scenario	DC GPU Enterprise Value	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$6.6T	$270	32.4%	$87
strong bull	$3.4T	$141	19.1%	$27
base	$2.1T	$88	16.2%	$14
bear	$1.2T	$49	16.2%	$8
severe bear	$540B	$22	16.2%	$4
Total			100%	$140/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to the DC GPU sub-area's contribution to NVIDIA equity. Non-GPU and Platform Premium contribute separately.

Target contribution: $140/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.