Qualcomm's handset business is the cash engine but faces a binary Apple risk. The Snapdragon 8 Elite leads Android premium, but Apple's custom modem development could remove a significant revenue stream.
Apple's custom modem is the single biggest risk to Qualcomm. Repeated delays suggest modems are harder than Apple expected, but the direction is clear: Apple wants to control this component. Qualcomm's mitigation: diversify to reduce Apple from 20% to <10% of revenue.
On-device AI is Qualcomm's strategy to maintain premium ASPs and prevent commoditization. The 45 TOPS NPU runs LLMs locally — the question is whether consumers value on-device AI enough to pay premium prices.
China is both Qualcomm's biggest market and biggest geopolitical risk. Currently exempt from export controls, but domestic alternatives (HiSilicon, UNISOC) are developing.