| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $106B | $106 | 68% | — | |||
| base | $62B | $62 | 22% | — | |||
| bear | $27B | $27 | 10% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $81/share?
| Scenario | Handsets EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $106B | $96 | 68.0% | $66 |
| base | $62B | $56 | 22.2% | $13 |
| bear | $27B | $25 | 9.8% | $2 |
| Total | 100% | $81/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Handsets' contribution to Qualcomm equity. Auto/IoT and Compute contribute separately.
Target contribution: $81/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.