| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $8B | $8 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $2B | $2 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $52/share?
| Scenario | AI/ML EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $8B | $24 | 75.0% | $18 |
| base | $2B | $5 | 20.0% | $1 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-1 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $19/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to AI/ML's contribution to Snowflake equity. Data Platform and Marketplace contribute separately.
Target contribution: $52/sh. Residual: $33.0/sh.