| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $5B | $5 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $1B | $1 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | ($0B) | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $14/share?
| Scenario | Marketplace EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $5B | $13 | 75.0% | $10 |
| base | $1B | $3 | 20.0% | $1 |
| bear | ($0B) | $-0 | 5.0% | $-0 |
| Total | 100% | $11/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Marketplace's contribution to Snowflake equity. Data Platform and AI/ML contribute separately.
Target contribution: $14/sh. Residual: $3.5/sh.