| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue | Op Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $208B | $80 | 28% | auto content ramp | |||
| bull | $147B | $56 | 19% | — | |||
| base | $122B | $47 | 18% | — | |||
| bear | $73B | $28 | 18% | chinese competition | |||
| decline | $60B | $23 | 18% | capacity reallocation |
Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $50/share?
| Scenario | Mature Nodes EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mega bull | $208B | $80 | 27.8% | $22 |
| bull | $147B | $56 | 18.6% | $10 |
| base | $122B | $47 | 17.9% | $8 |
| bear | $73B | $28 | 17.9% | $5 |
| decline | $60B | $23 | 17.9% | $4 |
| Total | 100% | $50/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to mature/specialty nodes' contribution to TSMC equity. Advanced logic, packaging, geopolitical premium, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $50/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.