Power Management — Scenario Model

Current Price

$265

Power Management Component

$100/sh

Market Implies

79% chance of upside scenarios

10% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$63B	$63	49%	dc power 3x
bull	$23B	$23	20%	—
base	$17B	$17	10%	—
bear	$10B	$10	10%	schneider pricing war
collapse	$6B	$6	10%	capex pullback

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2028

dc power 3x

Total data center power consumption triples from 2025 levels

Unlocks: UPS, PDU, switchgear demand grows proportionally

100+ MW AI DCs require proportional UPS [ups_systems.json]

2028

schneider pricing war

Schneider Electric initiates aggressive pricing to take UPS share

Unlocks: Margin compression across data center power segment

Schneider has deeper pockets [thermal/_overview.json]

2027

capex pullback

Hyperscaler capex pulls back 20%+ from 2026 guidance

Unlocks: Power equipment orders drop, backlog partially cancels

Backlog buffer 1.5yr [hyperscaler_capex.json]

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $100/share?

Scenario	Power EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$63B	$163	49.0%	$80
bull	$23B	$58	20.0%	$12
base	$17B	$44	10.3%	$5
bear	$10B	$25	10.3%	$3
collapse	$6B	$14	10.3%	$1
Total			100%	$100/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Power Management contribution to VRT equity. Thermal and Services contribute separately.

Target contribution: $100/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.