Services & Spares — Scenario Model

Current Price

$265

Services & Spares Component

$35/sh

Market Implies

78% chance of upside scenarios

11% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$23B	$23	47%	software monitoring upsell
bull	$8B	$8	20%	—
base	$6B	$6	11%	—
bear	$3B	$3	11%	third party competition
collapse	$2B	$2	11%	dc capex pullback

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

software monitoring upsell

Vertiv launches AI-powered predictive monitoring platform

Unlocks: Software attach rates increase from 60% to 70%+

Installed base drives services [services/_overview.json]

2028

third party competition

Third-party service providers undercut VRT on maintenance contracts

Unlocks: Pricing pressure reduces service margins

Downtime costs make switching risky [services/_overview.json]

2028

dc capex pullback

DC capex pullback reduces new equipment installs

Unlocks: Installed base growth stalls, services revenue flattens

Services lag equipment by 1-2yr [services/_overview.json]

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $35/share?

Scenario	Services EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$23B	$60	46.7%	$28
bull	$8B	$20	20.0%	$4
base	$6B	$15	11.1%	$2
bear	$3B	$9	11.1%	$1
collapse	$2B	$6	11.1%	$1
Total			100%	$35/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Services contribution to VRT equity. Thermal and Power contribute separately.

Target contribution: $35/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.