Thermal Management — Scenario Model

Current Price

$265

Thermal Management Component

$120/sh

Market Implies

91% chance of upside scenarios

4% collapse probability

Scenario Overview

Scenario	EV	$/sh	Prob	Key Gate
mega bull	$58B	$58	72%	150kw racks standard
bull	$27B	$27	15%	—
base	$10B	$10	4%	—
bear	$5B	$5	4%	air cooling extends
collapse	$3B	$3	4%	dc capex pullback

Growth is gated by milestones. Cost step-changes and capability unlocks are tied to specific milestones.

2027

liquid cooling mainstream

Liquid cooling becomes default for all new AI data center builds

Unlocks: Thermal ASPs and margins step up materially

CEO: growing 'really really really rapidly' [thermal/liquid_cooling.json]

2029

150kw racks standard

150kW+ per-rack densities become standard for AI compute

Unlocks: Requires advanced liquid cooling — air cooling insufficient

Next-gen GPUs push beyond 100kW [thermal/power_density.json]

2028

air cooling extends

Air cooling improvements extend viability, slowing liquid adoption

Unlocks: Delays liquid cooling TAM expansion by 2-3 years

Below 30kW/rack, air remains viable [liquid_cooling_transition.json]

2027

dc capex pullback

Hyperscaler capex pulls back materially from 2026 highs

Unlocks: Thermal orders drop as new DC builds decelerate

Backlog provides 1.5yr buffer [hyperscaler_capex.json]

Blue = input · Black = computed · Click to expand

Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $120/share?

Scenario	Thermal EV	Per Share	Implied Prob.	Weighted Contrib.
mega bull	$58B	$149	72.5%	$108
bull	$27B	$68	14.7%	$10
base	$10B	$25	4.3%	$1
bear	$5B	$12	4.3%	$1
collapse	$3B	$7	4.3%	$0
Total			100%	$120/sh

Note: These probabilities apply to Thermal contribution to VRT equity. Power and Services contribute separately.

Target contribution: $120/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.