| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $38B | $38 | 58% | — | |||
| base | $21B | $21 | 25% | — | |||
| bear | $4B | $4 | 16% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $80/share?
| Scenario | Generation EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $38B | $108 | 58.3% | $63 |
| base | $21B | $60 | 25.4% | $15 |
| bear | $4B | $11 | 16.4% | $2 |
| Total | 100% | $80/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to Power Generation's contribution to VST equity. TXU Retail, Nuclear Premium, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $80/sh. Residual: $0.0/sh.