| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $6B | $6 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $1B | $1 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $0B | $0 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $15/share?
| Scenario | Nuclear Premium EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $6B | $16 | 75.0% | $12 |
| base | $1B | $3 | 20.0% | $1 |
| bear | $0B | $0 | 5.0% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $13/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to the Nuclear/AI Premium's contribution to VST equity. Generation, TXU Retail, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $15/sh. Residual: $2.2/sh.