| Scenario | EV | $/sh | Prob | Revenue B | Operating Margin % | Fcf | Key Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $11B | $11 | 75% | — | |||
| base | $5B | $5 | 20% | — | |||
| bear | $1B | $1 | 5% | — |
Given these scenario EVs, what probability weights would the market need to assign to produce the current market-implied value of $50/share?
| Scenario | Retail EV | Per Share | Implied Prob. | Weighted Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| bull | $11B | $31 | 75.0% | $24 |
| base | $5B | $14 | 20.0% | $3 |
| bear | $1B | $4 | 5.0% | $0 |
| Total | 100% | $27/sh |
Note: These probabilities apply to TXU Retail's contribution to VST equity. Generation, Nuclear Premium, and net cash contribute separately.
Target contribution: $50/sh. Residual: $23.1/sh.